Kentucky Derby 2024 Horses
Longtime horse racing handicapper Mr. Ed Sehon has been studying the ponies since 1962. Here are his thoughts and some stats for the 2024 Kentucky Derby entries.
>>More Kentucky Derby analysis and picks from VSiN’s experts.
1 DORNOCH (20-1)
Record: 6-3-2-0
Trainer: Danny Gargan
Jockey: Luis Saez
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 91
Earnings: $552,275
Mr. Ed: I’ve been touting this guy since before his Fountain of Youth score, but I’m troubled by his lackluster effort in the Bluegrass. Gargan is an excellent trainer, and Saez is a top jock. I’ll have him on some tickets, but he’s no longer on my short list of possible winners. EXOTICS PLAY.
2 SIERRA LEONE (3-1)
Record: 4-3-1-0
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 98
Earnings: $918,000
Mr. Ed: Expected to vie with Fierceness for race-day favoritism, he’s Improved with every race. His lone loss was in the mud at Aqueduct in the G2 Remsen. He should easily handle the extra furlong and be flying in the lane. Both Brown and Gaffalione are looking for their first Derby score. Son of a Gun (Runner)! LOTS TO LIKE.
3 MYSTIK DAN (20-1)
Record: 6-2-1-1
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Jockey: Brian Hernandez
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 101
Earnings: $641,360
Mr. Ed: Appears headed in the wrong direction. Sharp regression following triple-digit Beyer does not inspire confidence. Connections attract local Kentucky support. PRAY FOR RAIN.
4 CATCHING FREEDOM (8-1)
Record: 5-3-0-1
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 97
Earnings: $877,350
Mr. Ed: The Louisiana Derby winner keeps getting better. His closing style suits the expected race pace. He has an excellent trainer and a first-class rider. Hoping to avenge his loss to Sierra Leone in the sloppy Risen Star. Stone-cold closer capable of winning it all. DON’T DISMISS.
5 CATALYTIC (30-1)
Record: 3-1-2-0
Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 90
Earnings: $216,825
Mr. Ed: This lightly raced colt finished second to Fierceness in the Florida Derby by 13 lengths. There was a positive rider change. The wise trainer knows how to spring an upset. NO WAY TODAY, JOSE.
6 JUST STEEL (20-1)
Record: 11-2-4-1
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Keith Asmussen
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 95
Earnings: $724,545
Mr. Ed: Popular “Coach” Lukas is excited by his chances. He has been training recently at Oaklawn but has won over the Churchill oval. The pricy son of Justify has been tested but failed in three G1 attempts. This is the first Derby ride for the HOF trainer’s son. OUT OF THE MONEY.
7 HONOR MARIE (20-1)
Record: 5-2-2-0
Trainer: Whit Beckman
Jockey: Ben Curtis
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 96
Earnings: $526,175
Mr. Ed: Colt just missed Catching Freedom in the Louisiana Derby. Has three trips over the Churchill Downs oval, including a win as a juvenile. There’s more talent here than meets the eye. Connections’ first Run for the Roses—sharp trainer and a sneaky good Irish rider. The horse should love the extra distance. CLEVER CLOSER.
8 JUST A TOUCH (10-1)
Record: 3-1-2-0
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 96
Earnings: $281,700
Mr. Ed: The lightly raced son of Triple Crown winner Justify seeks to avenge his loss to Sierra Leone in the Bluegrass. Some Vegas wiseguys think he can, so don’t underestimate his chances. Pitch this sleeper at your own risk. IN THE MONEY.
SCRATCHED-9 ENCINO (20-1)
Record: 4-3-1-0
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: TBD
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 94
Earnings: $378,315
Mr. Ed: This lightly-raced, improving son of Nyquist shows promise. The trainer has been sending out winners from Turfway stables. Rested and ready, the speedy colt may exceed expectations. IT WILL OUTRUN ODDS.
10 T O PASSWORD (30-1)
Record: 2-2-0-0
Trainer: Daisuke Takayanagi
Jockey: Katsuma Sameshima
Best Beyer Speed Figure: N.A.
Earnings: $163,339
Mr. Ed: This Asian runner has an unblemished record in Japan. Don’t know much, don’t expect much. Welcome to the big leagues. EASY TO ELIMINATE.
11 FOREVER YOUNG (10-1)
Record: 5-5-0-0
Trainer: Yosh*to Yahagi
Jockey: Ryusei Sakai
Best Beyer Speed Figure: N.A.
Earnings: $2,049,451
Mr. Ed: This world traveler sports a perfect 5-for-5 record. Hard-worker hopes to become the first Derby winner from Japan. An import that might be overlooked at betting windows. IN THE MIX.
12 TRACK PHANTOM (20-1)
Record: 7-3-2-1
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 94
Earnings: $405,000
Mr. Ed: Super HOF trainer Asmussen aims to add his first Derby win to a stellar resume. The Quality Road offspring won his maiden race over the Churchill Downs oval. Classic distance looks to be a furlong too far for this game front-runner. SPEED KILLS.
13 WEST SARATOGA (50-1)
Record: 10-2-5-1
Trainer: Larry Demeritte
Jockey: Jesus Castanon
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 85
Earnings: $460,140
Mr. Ed: This seasoned player appears to be in too deep. Frequent flier returns to a familiar racing surface. Finished out of the money in lone G1 stakes. ALSO RAN.
14 ENDLESSLY (30-1)
Record: 6-5-0-0
Trainer: Michael McCarthy
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 91
Earnings: $707,200
Mr. Ed: A horse that knows how to win takes a big step up in class. He’ll need to run much faster if he’s going to compete here. DOUBTFUL.
15 DOMESTIC PRODUCT (30-1)
Record: 5-2-1-0
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 87
Earnings: $314,200
Mr. Ed: Sierra Leone’s stablemate won the G3 Tampa Bay Derby in early March but has been on the bench since. Low-speed figures just don’t measure up, but a tip-top rider may help. OFFERS LITTLE.
16 GRAND MO THE FIRST
Record: 6-2-0-4
Trainer: Victor Barboza
Jockey: Emisael Jaramillo
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 87
Earnings: $214,650
Mr. Ed: This slow poke snuck into the field when Deterministic opted not to run. Lacks the speed to compete early and the stamina to finish strong. SAVE YOUR MONEY.
17 FIERCENESS (5-2)
Record: 5-3-0-1
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 110
Earnings: $1,703,850
Mr. Ed: Hard not to like. Looks invincible after a 13-length victory in the Florida Derby. He sports the best speed figure in the field. Juvenile champ, even better as a sophom*ore. HOF trainer-rider combo. Only knock: needs the lead. But if he breaks on top, he may never look back. FASTEST OF ALL.
18 STRONGHOLD (20-1)
Record: 6-3-3-0
Trainer: Phil D’Amato
Jockey: Antonio Fresu
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 89
Earnings: $827,200
Mr. Ed: The best of the west joins the field after a Big Cap victory. Stalker never finished worse than second. Broke maiden at Churchill before heading west. Strong credentials. Might not be good enough to win, but don’t leave off exotic tickets. BETTER THAN MOST.
19 RESILIENCE (20-1)
Record: 6-2-1-1
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: TBD
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 90
Earnings: $494,630
Mr. Ed: The G2 Wood Memorial winner improves with age and the addition of blinkers. This son of super sire Into Mischief needs a perfect stalking trip to score. Fast works indicate Mott will have this big boy ready to rumble. MIGHT SURPRISE.
20 SOCIETY MAN (50-1)
Record: 5-1-1-1
Trainer: Danny Gargan
Jockey: Frankie Dettori
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 87
Earnings: $196,705
Mr. Ed: Second place in the Wood Memorial does not stamp the son of Good Magic as a legitimate contender. Look for him late, if at all. Colt is a second-string Gargan entrant. World-class Dettori lured to ride. BLIND DATE.
21 EPIC RIDE
Record: 5-2-2-1
Trainer: John Ennis
Jockey: Adam Beschizza
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 93
Earnings: $253,166
Mr. Ed: The third-place finish in the Bluegrass at 51-1 was a real eye-opener. Connections take a giant leap of faith by running here. WOULD BE EPIC.
AE MUGATU
Record: 12-1-1-3
Trainer: Jeff Engler
Jockey: Joe Talamo
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 96
Earnings: $80,570
Mr. Ed: Connections hoping 14th start will be a charm. Team should enjoy their owner’s box on MILLIONAIRES’ ROW, because they won’t get anywhere closer to the Winner’s Circle. NO CHANCE.
